{"id":916,"date":"2021-10-01T20:40:05","date_gmt":"2021-10-01T18:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/?p=916"},"modified":"2021-10-01T20:58:20","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T18:58:20","slug":"volby-2021-priority-vlastence-a-propadle-hlasy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/?p=916","title":{"rendered":"Volby 2021 &#8211; priority vlastence a propadl\u00e9 hlasy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Volby se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed a na blogovac\u00edch a zpravodajsk\u00fdch serverech se t\u00e9ma voleb za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 rozeb\u00edrat \u010dast\u011bji. Je dobr\u00e9 si pro\u010d\u00edtat i koment\u00e1\u0159e, proto\u017ee tam ze zjistit, jak vlastn\u011b lid\u00e9 uva\u017euj\u00ed. Je celkem pochopiteln\u00e9, kdy\u017e dlouholet\u00fd p\u0159\u00edznivec \u010cSSD jim hodl\u00e1 &#8220;je\u0161t\u011b naposledy d\u00e1t \u0161anci&#8221;. Toto uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed je sice lidsky pochopiteln\u00e9, ale poj\u010fme si rozebrat, zda je spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 s ohledem na situaci, ve kter\u00e9 se na\u0161e zem\u011b nach\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><b>Nap\u0159ed fakta \u010d.1<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho \u010desk\u00e9ho Orb\u00e1na<\/li>\n<li>lidi jsou jac\u00ed jsou, jin\u00ed k dispozici nejsou a nebudou, je nutno po\u010d\u00edtat re\u00e1ln\u011b s t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u011b k dispozici.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Jak tomu rozum\u011bt?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>M\u016f\u017eeme \u010dekat na \u010desk\u00e9ho Orb\u00e1na nebo je\u0161t\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ide\u00e1l, ale t\u00edm str\u00e1v\u00edme zbytek \u017eivota v \u010dek\u00e1rn\u011b a mezit\u00edm se z na\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b stane u\u017e \u00fapln\u00e1 a nefal\u0161ovan\u00e1 vyrabovan\u00e1 bruselsk\u00e1 kolonie.<\/p>\n<p>Realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee budouc\u00edm premi\u00e9rem bude Babi\u0161, Fiala nebo Barto\u0161. S t\u00edmhle nic nenad\u011bl\u00e1me, tohle je pravd\u011bpodobnost hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s jistotou. Sv\u00fdmi hlasy toto ovlivn\u00edme, nikoliv ur\u010d\u00edme, proto\u017ee p\u00e1nov\u00e9 mohou po volb\u00e1ch ukout r\u016fzn\u00e9 k\u0161efty, jin\u00fdmi slovy &#8211; k\u0159eslo premi\u00e9ra pro n\u011bkoho pragmaticky zobchoduj\u00ed bez ohledu na volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n<p><b>Fakta \u010d. 2<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>v hrub\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech v minulosti 1\/3 lid\u00ed volilo doleva, 1\/3 doprava a 1\/3 z\u016fstala doma<\/li>\n<li>rozd\u011blen\u00ed na levice-pravice p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 platit<\/li>\n<li>velk\u00e1 mno\u017eina lid\u00ed se rozhoduje iracion\u00e1ln\u011b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Jak tomu rozum\u011bt?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Pod\u00edv\u00e1te-li se p\u0159edchoz\u00ed volby opravdu s nadhledem, pak dojdete v hrub\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech k tomu, \u017ee cca 1\/3 ob\u010dan\u016f volby nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed, 1\/3 by se r\u00e1da starala sama o sebe a 1\/3 by r\u00e1da, kdyby se v max. m\u00ed\u0159e staral st\u00e1t, v jeho\u017e \u010dele by m\u011bli b\u00fdt \u010destn\u00ed politici. Toto d\u011blen\u00ed de-facto na levici a pravici pomalu miz\u00ed, m\u00edsto n\u011bj nastupuje d\u011blen\u00ed na ob\u010dany se snahou h\u00e1jit z\u00e1jmy \u010desk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a ob\u010dany, kte\u0159\u00ed \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1t nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed a identifikuj\u00ed se s EU. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee dnes ji\u017e m\u00edrn\u011b p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 druh\u00e9 d\u011blen\u00ed &#8211; z\u00e1jmy \u010cR vs. z\u00e1jmy EU.<\/p>\n<p>K tomu je nutno je\u0161t\u011b vz\u00edt do \u00favahy, \u017ee velmi po\u010detn\u00e1 mno\u017eina se chov\u00e1 iracion\u00e1ln\u011b &#8211; \u017eeny si nap\u0159. \u0159eknou: to je sympatick\u00fd politik, mluv\u00ed slu\u0161n\u011b, v\u017edy je \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b upraven, je galantn\u00ed apod. a maj\u00ed o volb\u011b jasno, to sam\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee platit o hodnocen\u00ed politi\u010dek ze strany mu\u017e\u016f &#8211; ostatn\u011b, jak byla u soused\u016f zvolena \u010caputov\u00e1, jej\u00ed\u017e jedinou starost\u00ed je, aby m\u011bla barevn\u011b slad\u011bno boty-\u0161aty-kabelka&#8230;?? &#8230; p\u0159esn\u011b takhle. K tomu je\u0161t\u011b nutno p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edst mno\u017einu t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed uv\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00edm slib\u016fm &#8211; by\u0165 jsou mnohdy zjevn\u011b nere\u00e1ln\u00e9. Ale zn\u00e1te to &#8230; slibuji r\u00e1d a kvalitn\u011b, nespln\u011bn\u00e9 sliby z\u00e1sadn\u011b p\u0159eb\u00edj\u00edm sliby nov\u00fdmi a kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/p>\n<p><b>Co z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Nic m\u00ed\u0148 ne\u017e to, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u011b uva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f moc nen\u00ed a re\u00e1ln\u011b vlastenecky uva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f bude logicky tedy je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, proto\u017ee se jedn\u00e1 pouze o \u010d\u00e1st mno\u017einy re\u00e1ln\u011b uva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, by tito m\u011bli odhodit emoce a volit p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u011b. V\u0161e toti\u017e nasv\u011bd\u010duje, \u017ee o dal\u0161\u00edm sm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed vlasti bude rozhodovat skute\u010dn\u011b p\u00e1r hlas\u016f.<\/p>\n<p><b>Fakta \u010d. 3.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>tyto volby nejsou o vystoupen\u00ed z EU nebo NATO ani o n\u011bjak\u00e9m jin\u00e9m zp\u016fsobu, jak zastavit v dal\u0161\u00edm volebn\u00edm obdob\u00ed destrukci n\u00e1rodn\u00edho st\u00e1tu<\/li>\n<li>tyto volby jsou pouze o rychlosti &#8211; pro jedny integrace do EU, pro druh\u00e9 destrukce n\u00e1rodn\u00edho st\u00e1tu<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Jak tomu rozum\u011bt?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Tato realita vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z mo\u017enosti, kdo m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt premi\u00e9rem a jak\u00fd t\u00fdm m\u00e1 kolem sebe, proto\u017ee premi\u00e9r a jeho t\u00fdm budou ur\u010dovat sm\u011br a tempo.<\/p>\n<p><b>Barto\u0161<\/b> se nijak netaj\u00ed sv\u00fdmi sympatiemi k EU, k zelen\u00e9mu \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, obohacen\u00ed migranty atd. Signifikantn\u00ed pro n\u011bho je, \u017ee kdy\u017e zjist\u00ed, \u017ee u voli\u010d\u016f nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na odpor, tak hned prohl\u00e1s\u00ed, \u017ee to tak nemyslel a \u017ee n\u011bkdo \u00famysln\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed hoaxy. Probl\u00e9mem ov\u0161em ale je, \u017ee tohle je skute\u010dn\u00fd program Pir\u00e1t\u016f, proto jeho naivkov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nech\u00e1pou jemn\u00e9 mechanismy politiky, ob\u010das do m\u00e9di\u00ed pust\u00ed sv\u00e9 n\u00e1pady a rozv\u00edjej\u00ed my\u0161lenky, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed prodiskutovan\u00e9 na v\u0161emo\u017en\u00fdch konferenc\u00edch a m\u00edtinc\u00edch strany a Barto\u0161 je nen\u00ed schopen uhl\u00eddat. Si to vemte &#8211; celou dobu m\u00e1te konzistentn\u00ed program, na v\u0161ech sch\u016fz\u00edch, vystoupen\u00edch vykl\u00e1d\u00e1te a diuskutujete o sd\u00edlen\u00e9 ekonomice, zelen\u00e9 energii a nutnosti p\u0159in\u00e9st ob\u011bti a .. a najednou maj\u00ed ti sam\u00ed lid\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkat n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho jenom aby z\u00edskali hlasy ve volb\u00e1ch? O tom, \u017ee si tohle n\u011bkdo ve veden\u00ed uv\u011bdomuje sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed i nepopirateln\u00fd fakt, \u017ee do volebn\u00edch debat vys\u00edlaj\u00ed z\u00e1stupce STANu.<\/p>\n<p><b>Fiala<\/b> &#8211; uhlazen\u00e9 \u017eel\u00e9 v obleku je takov\u00e1 decentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed varianta Barto\u0161e. C\u00edle ale maj\u00ed stejn\u00e9, jenom pan profesor to pod\u00e1v\u00e1 uhlazen\u011bji a akademi\u010dt\u011bji. ODS jako pravicov\u00e1 strana je zni\u010dena a p\u0159etavena do podoby m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed TOP09. U Fialy je je\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee nen\u00ed mo\u017eno p\u0159esn\u011b ur\u010dit program &#8211; jedou jen antibabi\u0161 a v\u0161e by d\u011blali l\u00e9pe a \u00fapln\u011b nejl\u00e9pe, kdyby bylo Euro a modern\u00ed, ekologick\u00e1 ekonomika &#8230; Jak a co konkr\u00e9tn\u011b &#8211; nic, pusto, pr\u00e1zdno, jako spr\u00e1vn\u00ed podpindosn\u00edci \u010dekaj\u00ed na instrukce z Brusele.<\/p>\n<p>Jedin\u00fdm skute\u010dn\u00fdm rana\u0159em a pragmatikem v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m v\u00fdb\u011bru je <b>Babi\u0161<\/b>. Tomu ne\u010din\u00ed probl\u00e9m naslibovat n\u011bco v \u010cesku a naprost\u00fd opak sl\u00edbit v Bruseli a ze v\u0161eho pak realizovat polovinu. V\u0161e nasv\u011bd\u010duje, \u017ee v po\u0159ad\u00ed jeho z\u00e1jm\u016f je na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b Agrofert a a\u017e na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b jeho obraz premi\u00e9ra staraj\u00edc\u00ed se o blaho \u010cR. Tohle se v n\u011bm bije a jedin\u00e1 dobr\u00e1 v\u011bc na tom je, \u017ee je to evidentn\u00ed a m\u016f\u017eeme s t\u00edm po\u010d\u00edtat jako s konstantou. Nav\u00edc si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee Babi\u0161 v budoucnu uva\u017euje i o postu prezidenta, proto bude konat tak, aby si nenasral v\u0161echny. Bude-li m\u00edt pocit, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sympatie z\u00edsk\u00e1 probruselsk\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem, klidn\u011b n\u00e1s prod\u00e1. Proto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 se hlasit\u011b oz\u00fdvat &#8211; \u010d\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vlastenectv\u00ed v medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prostoru, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance, \u017ee Babi\u0161 bude bruselsk\u00e9 protin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dopady m\u00edrnit a brzdit.<\/p>\n<p><b>Co z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 &#8230;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>D\u011blen\u00ed na levici a pravici je postupn\u011b nahrazov\u00e1no proevropsk\u00fdmi vs provlasteneck\u00fdmi t\u00e1bory. Ta zhruba 1\/3 ob\u010dan\u016f, kter\u00e9 volby nezaj\u00edmaly p\u0159edt\u00edm, tak ty nebudou volby pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zaj\u00edmat ani nyn\u00ed. A je \u00fapln\u011b jedno, zda kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee nejsou schopni sv\u00fdm hlasem nic ovlivnit nebo proto, \u017ee se o politiku nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed a cht\u011bj\u00ed jen norm\u00e1ln\u011b \u017e\u00edt. T\u011bmto lidem je t\u0159eba jen neust\u00e1le p\u0159ipom\u00ednat, \u017ee kdy\u017e se nebudou o politiku zaj\u00edmat, tak se politika za\u010dne zaj\u00edmat o n\u011b &#8211; o jejich pen\u011b\u017eenky a svobody.<\/p>\n<p>Jak jsou zbyl\u00e9 dv\u011b t\u0159etiny rozd\u011bleny napov\u00ed tyto volby. osobn\u011b tipuji, \u017ee v hrub\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech bude d\u011blen\u00ed 50:50, mo\u017en\u00e1 s m\u00edrnou p\u0159evahou provlasteneck\u00e9ho t\u00e1bora voli\u010d\u016f. \u0160patn\u00e9 ale je, \u017ee medi\u00e1ln\u00ed prostor je v\u011bt\u0161inov\u011b ovl\u00e1d\u00e1n probruselsk\u00fdm t\u00e1borem a mnoho lid\u00ed se nerozhoduje racion\u00e1ln\u011b, ale d\u00e1 na emoce, kter\u00e9 jsou mainstreamem formov\u00e1ny pomoc\u00ed pr\u016fzkum\u016f, anket, rozhovor\u016f &#8230; atd.<\/p>\n<p>Op\u011bt &#8211; pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee provlasteneck\u00fd t\u00e1bor je v medi\u00e1ln\u00ed men\u0161in\u011b a v m\u00e9di\u00edch siln\u011b znev\u00fdhod\u0148ov\u00e1n, by jeho \u010dlenov\u00e9 m\u011bli volit bez ohledu na emoce, tedy p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u011b.<\/p>\n<p><b>Racion\u00e1ln\u00ed volba vlastence<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 situace je takov\u00e1, \u017ee kdo vol\u00ed Barto\u0161e (Pir\u00e1ty a STAN), ten preferuje rychlou a t\u011bsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed integraci s EU, p\u0159ijet\u00ed Eura, p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed migrant\u016f a v\u00fdrobu potravin v supermarketech a elekt\u0159iny v z\u00e1suvk\u00e1ch &#8230; tito ekofanatici odm\u00edtaj\u00ed skute\u010dnost, \u017ee elekt\u0159ina se vyr\u00e1b\u00ed v elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch (proto je jako nepot\u0159ebn\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed odstavovat) a \u017ee pole se or\u00e1 traktorem, kter\u00fd jezd\u00ed na naftu. Jejich heslo je &#8211; dovezeme, koup\u00edme, odkud a jak dovezou a \u010d\u00edm zaplat\u00ed v\u0161ak ji\u017e ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. Pen\u00edze p\u0159ece jsou, stejn\u011b tak jako elekt\u0159ina v z\u00e1suvce a potraviny v supermarketu &#8230; tak\u017ee co ostatn\u00ed vlastn\u011b \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee jo?<\/p>\n<p>Kdo vol\u00ed Fialu (a slepenec SPOLU), ten vol\u00ed v podstat\u011b i Pir\u00e1ty a STAN, proto\u017ee ji\u017e ve\u0159ejn\u011b deklarovali spojenectv\u00ed a bez toho spojen\u00ed nemohou vl\u00e1dnout ani teoreticky. V akceptovan\u00fdch a p\u0159eb\u00edran\u00fdch EU-\u0161\u00edlenostech rozd\u00edl nebude, Fiala to jen pod\u00e1 uhlazen\u011bji a diplomati\u010dt\u011bji. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed uk\u00e1zka z\u00e1sadovosti &#8211; Jure\u010dka nejprve ve\u0159ejn\u011b deklaroval negativn\u00ed postoj k stejnopohlavn\u00edm man\u017eelstv\u00ed, aby druh\u00fd den potvrdil prav\u00fd opak, proto\u017ee se v Bruseli n\u011bjak\u00fd subaltern\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk hr\u016fzostra\u0161n\u011b zamra\u010dil &#8230; a Jure\u010dka poslu\u0161n\u011b zapan\u00e1\u010dkoval.<\/p>\n<p>Pro vlastence tak bohu\u017eel zb\u00fdv\u00e1 Babi\u0161 s jeho hnut\u00edm ANO a skupiny, se kter\u00fdmi mu Brusel povol\u00ed utvo\u0159it koalici. Babi\u0161 je z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch ten, kter\u00fd n\u00e1pady EU nejv\u00edce brzd\u00ed, tedy jedn\u00e1 v r\u00e1mci mo\u017en\u00e9ho nejv\u00edce provlastenecky. Jestli Babi\u0161 v kampani ubere hlasy SPD je u\u017e jenom technik\u00e1lie, proto\u017ee SPD t\u00edm rozhodn\u011b nesraz\u00ed pod 5%. V podstat\u011b se tedy jen jedn\u00e1 o p\u0159el\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f z varianty hodn\u011b protibruselsk\u00e9 na stranu m\u00e9n\u011b protibruselskou. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ale pro z\u00e1jmy \u010cR bude l\u00e9pe, kdy\u017e protibruselsk\u00fd hlas bude siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Co se t\u00fd\u010de \u0161kod, tak Babi\u0161 si zcela jist\u011b napakuje Agrofert\u00ed \u0161rajtofli &#8211; v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se bude ale jednat p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b jen o finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 p\u016fjdou rychle napravit. Po \u00fa\u0159adov\u00e1n\u00ed Barto\u0161e nebo Fialy ov\u0161em z\u016fstane je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zni\u010den\u00e1 ekonomika a v\u00edce zb\u00edda\u010den\u00fdch lid\u00ed &#8230; a tady n\u00e1prava bude podstatn\u011b del\u0161\u00ed a komplikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed &#8230; tak\u017ee &#8211; Babi\u0161ova hami\u017enost je men\u0161\u00ed zlo.<\/p>\n<p>Logicky jsme si v\u00fd\u0161e dolo\u017eili, \u017ee racion\u00e1ln\u011b uva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch vlasteneck\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f moc nebude, proto by m\u011bli m\u00edt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>d\u00e1m-li hlas ANO, m\u00e1m v podstat\u011b jistotu, \u017ee m\u016fj hlas nepropadne, ale pos\u00edl\u00edm Babi\u0161e a ten v r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9ho pragmatismu se pak klidn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee domluvit nap\u0159. s ODS<\/li>\n<li>d\u00e1m-li hlas SPD, m\u00e1m op\u011bt tak\u0159ka jistotu, \u017ee hlas nepropadne, ale taky m\u00e1m slu\u0161nou jistotu, \u017ee SPD nebude povoleno b\u00fdt ve vl\u00e1d\u011b (co\u017e m\u011b nemus\u00ed tr\u00e1pit, pokud neaspiruji na k\u0159eslo ministra). Hlasem pro SPD pak posiluji skupinu, kter\u00e1 bude Babi\u0161\u016fv t\u00fdm nutit \u0161lapat na &#8220;EU brzdu&#8221;.<\/li>\n<li>d\u00e1m-li hlas KS\u010cM, \u010cSSD, m\u00edrn\u011b riskuji, \u017ee m\u016fj hlas propadne a t\u00edm bude p\u0159epo\u010dten i ve prosp\u011bch Barto\u0161e a Fialy.<\/li>\n<li>hlas pro Trikol\u00f3ru, Voln\u00fd blok, \u0160v\u00fdcarskou demokracii atd. je u\u017e slu\u0161n\u00e1 jistota, \u017ee hlas propadne a t\u00edm, d\u00edky p\u0159epo\u010dtu hlas\u016f, pos\u00edl\u00edm Fialu a Barto\u0161e. Tohle je o matematice, kterou si rozebereme d\u00e1le.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Volebn\u00ed matematika<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Pokud se leto\u0161n\u00ed volby nebudou vymykat svou \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed minulosti, pak lze op\u011bt o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee 1\/3 ob\u010dan\u016f z\u016fstane doma a zbytek bude rozd\u011blen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b na levice-pravice a probruselsk\u00e9 vs pron\u00e1rodn\u00ed skupiny.<\/p>\n<p>Bu\u010fme optimist\u00e9 a \u0159ekn\u011bme, \u017ee p\u0159evl\u00e1dne provlasteneck\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed v pom\u011bru 60 : 40 v neprosp\u011bch probruselsk\u00fdch podpindosn\u00edk\u016f. Jsem si jist\u00fd, \u017ee existuj\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsem si ale jist\u00fd, \u017ee do m\u00e9di\u00ed se pravdiv\u00fd obraz nedostane.<\/p>\n<p><strong>N\u00e1sleduje \u010dist\u00e1 matematika &#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ANO =&gt; odhadn\u011bme volebn\u00ed zisk 25-30%<\/li>\n<li>SPD =&gt; odhadn\u011bme volebn\u00ed zisk 10-15%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Dle m\u00e9ho<\/b> tak tyto dv\u011b uskupen\u00ed odeberou z t\u011bch optimisticky nastaven\u00fdch 60% provlastenecky vol\u00edc\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f 35-45% &#8230; tedy pro ostatn\u00ed provlasteneck\u00e9, resp. strany neh\u00fd\u0159\u00edc\u00ed EU-hujerismem tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 25-15% voli\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Poj\u010fme d\u00e1le&#8230; tyto procenta si pokusme rozd\u011blit mezi zn\u00e1m\u00e9 kandid\u00e1ty:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u010cSSD (protibruselsk\u00e1 politika je m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno diskutabiln\u00ed)<\/li>\n<li>KS\u010cM<\/li>\n<li>Trikol\u00f3ra<\/li>\n<li>Voln\u00fd blok<\/li>\n<li>P\u0159\u00edsaha<\/li>\n<li>ostatn\u00ed mal\u00e9 strany &#8211; \u0160v\u00fdcarsk\u00e1 demokracie atd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pokud zahrneme v\u0161echny opravdu mal\u00e9 strany pod jednu skupinu, pak m\u00e1me 6 subjekt\u016f pro kter\u00e9 zb\u00fdv\u00e1 25-15% voli\u010d\u016f. Pokud by m\u011bl Voln\u00fd blok nap\u0159\u00edklad z\u00edskat 21%, jak avizuje Voln\u00fd, pak nastane statistick\u00fd z\u00e1zrak a n\u011bkter\u00e9 z kandiduj\u00edc\u00edch stran nez\u00edsk\u00e1 ani hlas. Nebo &#8211; a tady pozor (!) &#8211; by musel \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b ubrat hlas\u016f z probruselskho t\u00e1bora, co\u017e nen\u00ed a\u017e tak \u00fapln\u00e9 sci-fi, proto\u017ee je zde hodn\u011b nao\u010dkovan\u00fdch, kte\u0159\u00ed se nechali nao\u010dkovat jen proto, aby mohli provozovat d\u00e1le sv\u00e9 r\u016fzn\u00e9 aktivity a tito se dnes mohou c\u00edtit opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b podvedeni, \u017ee?<\/p>\n<p>Pokud by nastal druh\u00fd extr\u00e9m a zbyl\u00e9 hlasy byly rozd\u011bleny rovnom\u011brn\u011b, pak ka\u017ed\u00fd z t\u011bch 6 z\u00e1stupc\u016f z\u00edsk\u00e1 4,17 &#8211; 2,5% a t\u00edm by se do PS nedostal nikdo z nich.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><b>Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm pro vlastence je tedy hrozba propadnut\u00ed hlasu a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd p\u0159epo\u010det i ve prosp\u011bch probruselsk\u00e9ho t\u00e1bora.<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ve skute\u010dnosti se d\u00e1 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee \u010cSSD a KS\u010cM maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 dlouholet\u00e9 voli\u010dsk\u00e9 j\u00e1dro a lze asi opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee pod 3% nep\u016fjdou. vezm\u011bme ale tu nejhor\u0161\u00ed (pro n\u011bkoho nejlep\u0161\u00ed) variantu, \u017ee \u010cSSD a KS\u010cM budou m\u00edt 4 a 4% &#8230; na zbyl\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i z\u00e1stupce pak ov\u0161em zb\u00fdv\u00e1 17-7% voli\u010d\u016f &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>J\u00e1 se ale domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee KS\u010cM m\u00e1 n\u011bkolik trumf\u016f &#8211; jednak m\u00e1 skaln\u00ed voli\u010dsk\u00e9 j\u00e1dro, druh\u00e1k nen\u00ed spojovan\u00e1 s bezuzdn\u00fdm rozkr\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm a \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edce vych\u00e1z\u00ed najevo, \u017ee n\u00e1rod \u00fap\u00edc\u00ed pod totalitn\u00ed bol\u0161evickou botou se vzmohl na vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch statk\u016f o kter\u00fdch se nov\u00e9mu lep\u0161\u00edmu re\u017eimu ani nezd\u00e1 &#8230; zkr\u00e1tka, tipuji, \u017ee KS\u010cM p\u0159eleze 5%. T\u00edm ov\u0161em pro zbyl\u00e9 strany z\u016fstane o to m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>Kon\u011bm voleb mo\u017en\u00e1 bude P\u0159\u00edsaha. osobn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to je produkt marketingov\u00e9ho t\u00fdmu kolem Babi\u0161e &#8211; to aby m\u011bl ve skute\u010dnosti s k\u00fdm sestavit vl\u00e1du. S P\u0159\u00edsahou je n\u011bkolik podivnost\u00ed &#8211; kdy\u017e za\u010dala, tak hned byla v m\u00e9di\u00edch (srovnej se za\u010d\u00e1tky Trikol\u00f3ry), kdy\u017e Klaus ml. ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee referendum o EU nebude, tak skon\u010dil a odstoupil kv\u016fliv\u00e1 propadu preferenc\u00ed, kdy\u017e tot\u00e9\u017e ud\u011bl\u00e1 \u0160lachta, tak mu v mainstreamu preference povysko\u010d\u00ed. D\u00e1le si v\u0161imn\u011bte, \u017ee P\u0159\u00edsaha v podstat\u011b dopl\u0148uje ANO &#8211; vymezila se proti migrant\u016fm sm\u011brem k Bruselu vyslala pon\u00ed\u017eenou supliku, \u017ee EU a NATO jsou &#8220;best in&#8221; a o opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed neuva\u017euje, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si mo\u017en\u00e1 zajistila povolen\u00ed b\u00fdt ve vl\u00e1d\u011b. Zkr\u00e1tka, j\u00e1 si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee pokud dojde na praskl\u00e9 potrub\u00ed nebo v\u00fdpadek proudu, tak P\u0159\u00edsaha p\u0159eleze 5% &#8230; co\u017e op\u011bt zmen\u0161\u00ed zbytek pro ostatn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Kdo tedy chce maxim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ibrzdit EU \u0159i\u0165olezectv\u00ed a m\u00edt jistotu, \u017ee jeho hlas nepropadne a t\u00edm nepos\u00edl\u00ed probruselsk\u00e9, ten by ,m\u011bl p\u0159ekousnout odpor k Okamurovi a hodit mu to. Na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b v po\u0159ad\u00ed je ANO. Zbytek je s rizikem, \u017ee hlas propadne.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Je\u0161t\u011b pozn\u00e1mka &#8211; za ka\u017ed\u00fd hlas se v lo\u0148sk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch vypl\u00e1celo tu\u0161\u00edm 30,- K\u010d, kdy\u017e strana p\u0159ekonala 3%. Pokud chcete m\u00edt \u010dist\u00e9 sv\u011bdom\u00ed, ho\u010fte to SPD nebo Babi\u0161ovi a t\u00e9 &#8220;sv\u00e9&#8221; stran\u011b po\u0161lete jednor\u00e1zov\u011b 100,- K\u010d &#8230; dostane tak za V\u00e1\u0161 hlas 3x v\u00edce ne\u017e ve volb\u00e1ch, Vy budete m\u00edt klid na du\u0161i, proto\u017ee jste pro dal\u0161\u00ed fungov\u00e1n\u00ed strany dali v\u00edce ne\u017e by z\u00edskala ve volb\u00e1ch a p\u0159itom jste nepodpo\u0159ili propadl\u00fdm a p\u0159epo\u010dten\u00fdm hlasem probruselsk\u00fd t\u00e1bor.<\/p>\n<p>Pro \u00faplnost je t\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b zm\u00ednit, \u017ee mal\u00e9 nevoliteln\u00e9 strany budou i v t\u00e1bo\u0159e probruselsk\u00fdch &#8211; to ale vlastenecky sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00ed voli\u010de nemus\u00ed tr\u00e1pit, max. t\u011b\u0161it &#8230; \u017ee? \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volby se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed a na blogovac\u00edch a zpravodajsk\u00fdch serverech se t\u00e9ma voleb za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 rozeb\u00edrat \u010dast\u011bji. Je dobr\u00e9 si pro\u010d\u00edtat i<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cesko","category-domaci"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=916"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/916\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":920,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/916\/revisions\/920"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.svoboda-projevu.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}